AMITOM crop update as of 7 June 2023
Planting for the 2023 season is now mostly over in all countries despite delays due to rains in many regions.
The summer crop is now starting. Due to increased surfaces planted (15,000 hectares instead of 12,500), the total forecast is now raised to 600,000 tonnes.
The planting is now finished in the south-west where conditions have been good, but delayed in the south-east due to rains at the start of the spring and storms most evening in the last two weeks. Planting should finish by mid-June. Wet conditions are starting to favour the development of blight on some localised fields. The forecast remains 160,000 tonnes for a total of 2240 hectares.
The weather has been quite erratic with unseasonable rains most days which has not caused any damages yet but some delays in plant development and a need for treatment against Alternaria and phytophthora development. There is currently a warm spell with about 30°C over the last two days. The forecast remains unchanged at 440,000 tonnes.
The weather is good and planting was done in time with only very short delays due to rains. Plant development is good. The total surfaces planted are 1,350 hectares for an expected production of 100,000 tonnes.
In the North, as reported in the news the month of May has been very rainy with floods in the province of Romagna (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena) that also affected tomato cultivation and mainly organic crops. Farmers had to stop transplanting for about two weeks and this will give some trouble in the harvesting. To date about 95% of the area has been planted and it will be completed this week. The final figures on the total hectares will be available end of June.
Cooler temperatures slow the development of the crop and the harvest will probably start with a delay of one week.
There is not a clear picture yet of the real damages caused by the floods and the yield achievable on the recovered cultivation, but we expect a general reduction in the yield and for this we reduce the forecast for the north to 2.75 million tonnes.
A price agreement of 151 euro/t for integrated crop and 181 for organic (ex field) was reached.
In the South, the situation is similar to Emilia with low temperatures after rains stopped planting for at least two weeks. This means that only about 85-90% of the total surface has been planted to date which could lead to a delay of maybe two weeks and some risk of stoppages during the harvest, although this will be confirmed later in June or in July. Surfaces will also be confirmed later with the satellite survey. Farmers have requested to wait another couple of weeks to restart negotiations to give them time to assess the surfaces actually planted. They want least 10 euros more per tonne for long tomatoes compared to round but processors only offer 5 more as there is little difference in yields and costs of production. If and when a IGP label is granted, a larger price difference could be considered.
In view of the issues, the total forecast for Italy is reduced from 5.7 to 5.6 million tonnes. More than ever in view of the delays, September will be important to achieve this number.
The situation is virtually similar to the one we described in the last report: the weather continues to be favorable, the temperature moderately warm and the light rains did not affect the plantations which ended last week. The crop continues to look good, but the recent weeks have been cool so start of harvest which was expected to be exceptionally early will now more probably start during the last week of July. The forecast remains unchanged at 1.5 million tonnes.
Planting is finished in Andalusia and nearly done in Extremadura. The weather recently has been mild to regular in the last few weeks, with April mostly hot and May cooler. Some storms are now forecast until the end of the week with unknown effect. The forecast remains unchanged at 2.6 million tonnes.
Planting of in-season tomatoes is now complete, but work remains in progress for the late season, with a total of around 10,300 hectares. Agricultural production is forecast at between 670,000 and 690,000 tonnes of tomatoes, of which 500,000 tonnes should be processed. The water situation as at 1st June stood at 760 million m3 in 36 reservoirs (representing 33% of their filling capacity).
Due to the cool weather and the rains, planting is only at abut 80% in the Bursa region, when it should normally be finished although no change is expected in the total surfaces. Plants are growing slowly so a late crop is expected. No change to the total forecast which remains 2.5 million tonnes. The devaluation of the lira continues with another 6% today.